A year has passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The eventual outcome of the war will have a profound geopolitical impact, especially on the strategic competition between the United States and China even though it is far from certain who will win it at the end.

In Washington, President Joe Biden has framed the struggle for Ukraine as a battle between democracy and autocracy. In Europe, the war is seen quite differently, namely: unless Russia is stopped in Ukraine, its troops will march into the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – and potentially followed by an invasion of Moldova. 

Russia’s threat to Europe is clear, which explains why the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has taken various steps to support Ukraine once Russia invaded it on February 24 of last year.

This is not a war that Europe wanted nor desired. 

While Biden’s ironclad support for Ukraine should be lauded, much of the credit for NATO’s critical role in protecting Europe against an historical adversary goes to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. 

Unlike Biden – whose acrimonious relationships with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hungarian President Victor Orban are well-known – Stoltenberg has demonstrated an extraordinary ability to work with them with the goal of maintaining unity within the transatlantic alliance vis-à-vis Russia. 

While we support Swedish and Finnish NATO membership, it became immediately clear that Turkish objections – whatever one may think of them – needed to be fully addressed.

Recognizing the importance of keeping Ankara within NATO, it was Stoltenberg, not Biden, who was able to establish a diplomatic path forward for Stockholm and Helsinki to join the alliance.

Stoltenberg also deftly managed the various challenges NATO faced throughout the Trump-administration. 

Prior to his appointment as NATO Secretary General in 2014, he served as Prime Minister of Norway from 2000-2001 and again from 2005-2013. 

On July 22, 2011, evil struck Norway when a domestic terrorist carried out a heinous shooting spree killing 69 people on the island of Utøya. 

As Prime Minister of a center-left government, Stoltenberg rose to the occasion by serving as a unifying leader who deliberately chose not to politicize the terrorist attack. 

Few could have imagined that Stoltenberg’s strength, conviction, and the servant-leadership he displayed at a time of extreme pain, would prepare him for spearheading an alliance that is effectively at war with Russia.

Stoltenberg’s strength – coupled with his competence and conviction to preserve Europe’s hard-earned freedoms – have enabled him to maintain an alliance that is becoming increasingly divided over culture. 

In the United States, Biden actively promotes ‘Wokism’ despite having been elected in 2020 because of his commitment to unifying a divided nation. In Hungary, Poland, and Turkey, the respective leaderships have chosen a nationalist path anchored in ‘National Conservatism’ with the overarching goal of preserving and protecting traditional values. 

Stoltenberg has, of course, managed to work efficiently with Biden,  President Emmanuel Macron of France and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

While the cultural differences within NATO are real and significant, it was Stoltenberg, not Biden, who played the instrumental role in preserving its unity through effective alliance management.

Prior to the upcoming 2023 Vilnius Summit, a new NATO Secretary General will be nominated.  Unfortunately, Stoltenberg won’t be able to continue as his term will come to an end. 

According to NATO, the selection of a Secretary General “is carried through informal diplomatic consultations among member countries, which put forward candidates for the post.  No decision is confirmed until consensus is reached on one candidate.”

Irrespective of whether Sweden or Finland will become NATO members prior to the Summit, it is critical that Stoltenberg’s successor will be chosen based on merit and not criteria.  

The future of NATO requires that its next Secretary General can continue to demonstrate strength vis-à-vis Putin and deal effectively – as an equal – with Erdogan and Orban, respectively. 

This will be required for Sweden and Finland to join NATO in the short-term, and for Europe winning the war in the long-term.